Rate of Spread of ‘Sars-Cov-2’ Starts Decelerating

 “The rate of spread of Sars-Cov-2 has slowed sharply in the past month and will decelerate further as a result of the nationwide lockdown. This is the virus responsible for the coronavirus disease”, said Dr Vinod Paul, a member of the government policy think tank NITI Aayog. Dr Paul heads the empowered group overseeing the Covid-19 medical emergency management plan.

“The number of infections is now doubling every week, compared to 3.5. days in the second week of March”, Dr Paul said predicting that it will soon reach 10 days.

He said, “We are seeing a flattening of the curve and let us hope it stays that way”.

From infection rates being similar to Italy’s around March 13, it is now moving towards doubling every 10 days. The first death of a Covid-19 patient in India was reported on March 12 and the number of infections were 74 at the time.

According to Dr. Paul, who along with home secretary Ajay Bhalla has been part of the task force to decide the lockdown period and how to emerge from it, that’s when measures such as social distancing were announced, some states shut down selected areas and educational institutions started closing.

“From doubling every 3.5 days, it then improved to doubling every five days by March 29”, Paul said and added that in the next few days, India’s infection rate again quickened.

That’s because of the entire Tablighi Jamaat incident which gave us a scare for the next few days.

Hundreds of Covid-19 positive cases started emerging from among people who participated in the Tablighi Jamaat’s mid-March congregation at the Islamic missionary group’s Markaz headquarters in Nizamuddin , which has since emerged as India’s biggest coronavirus hotspot.

By March 29, India had 1,013 Covid-19 cases, but the daily increase over the next couple of days rose. Dr Paul said it was back on a positive downward curve by April 4 when the doubling rate of infections started easing towards the current seven days.